金融危机以来贸易保护主义对中国工业出口的影响研究  

Research on Effect of Trade Protectionism on China's Industrial Export Since 2008 Global Financial Crisis

作　　者：王小梅[1,2] 秦学志[1] 尚勤[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学工商管理学院 [2]山东大学(威海)商学院,264209

出　　处：《国际贸易问题》2014年第9期88-97,共10页Journal of International Trade

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(71171032;71101015);留学回国人员科研启动基金(第43批);山东省社会科学规划研究项目(13DJJJ25);山东大学(威海)商学院青年团队建设项目的联合资助

摘　　要：本文在对2008年金融危机以来中国工业遭受的贸易保护主义进行统计描述的基础上,利用中国335个HS4位数编码的行业出口数据,运用构建的动态差分引力模型实证检验了国外实施的贸易保护措施对中国工业出口的影响。研究结果表明:金融危机以来,中国工业出口受到了贸易保护主义的显著冲击,且其未来威胁呈不断增强态势;发达国家的贸易保护措施对中国工业出口的影响程度大于发展中国家,美国和阿根廷发起的贸易保护措施产生的冲击较突出;关税措施、进口禁令和政府采购等非关税壁垒是限制中国工业出口的主要形式,救助/国家援助和出口补贴对中国工业出口的间接冲击较为突出。Based on an account of the trade protectionism against China＇s industry since the 2008 global financial crisis and using 335 sets of HS 4-digit coded industrial export data, this paper adopts the dynamic first-differenced gravity equation to empirically test the effect of trade protectionism on China＇s industrial export. The results show that： （1） China＇s industrial export has been impaired by protectionist measures since the financial crisis, and trade protectionist threats take on a intensifying trend; （2） trade protectionist measures by developed countries, especially seen from measures by the United States and Argentina, im- pact China＇s industrial export more than those by developing countries; （3） tariff, import ban, public procurement and other non-tariff barriers are the main restriction forms against China＇s industrial export, and bailout/state-aid measures and export subsidies have significant indirect impact on China＇s industrial export.

关 键 词：金融危机 贸易保护主义 工业出口 动态差分引力模型 

分 类 号：F741.2[经济管理—国际贸易]