引入动态环境的经济增长与税收收入关系研究  

Research on Economic Growth and Tax Revenue with Environmental Dynamism Introduced Into

作　　者：张玲[1] 祁伟[1] 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学工商管理学院,长沙410012

出　　处：《软科学》2014年第9期1-6,共6页Soft Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71031004);国家科技支撑计划项目(2012BAH08B01)

摘　　要：以2007-2011年我国31个省、直辖市为研究样本，通过添加交互项和选取不同的时间窗口的方法，研究了环境动态性、经济增长和税收收入的关系。实证结果表明，GDP对税收收入有着显著正向影响；外部环境对经济增长和税收收入的关系有调节作用，具体表现为：在动态性较弱的环境中，GDP与税收收入之间的关系相当密切，GDP对税收收入的解释程度高达69．5％，并且模型中GDP的系数高达0．865；而在动态性较强的环境中，环境动态性对GDP和税收收入的关系起到负向调节作用，同时GDP对税收收入的解释程度有所下降，仅有47％，模型中GDP的系数也降为0．536。This paper studies the relationship between environmental dynamism, economic growth and tax revenue with the 31 provinces and municipalities from 2007 to 2011 by adding interaction and selecting different time window which influenced by emergency. The empirical result shows that GDP has a significant positive effect on tax revenue ; the external environment acts as a moderator between the relationship of economic growth and tax revenue. In a low dynamic environment, there is a high relationship between GDP and economic growth. Furthermore, GDP can explain economic growth up to 69. 5%, and the coefficient of GDP in regression model is 0. 865; however in a high dynamic environment, as the environmen- tal dynamism＇ s negative effect on the relationship between economic growth and tax revenue significantly, the explanation level of GDP to tax revenue has down to 47% even though GDP and tax revenue are significantly correlated. At the same time, coefficient of GDP in regression model has down to 0. 536.

关 键 词：环境动态性 经济增长 GDP 税收收入 调节作用 

分 类 号：F211[经济管理—国民经济] F812.4