宁夏地区气候变化及其对农业灌溉用水量的影响研究  

Climate Change and Its Impact on Agricultural Irrigation Water Requirement in Ningxia

作　　者：冯克鹏[1,2,3] 田军仓[1,2,3] 

机构地区：[1]宁夏大学土木与水利工程学院,银川750021 [2]宁夏节水灌溉与水资源调控工程技术研究中心,银川750021 [3]旱区现代农业水资源高效利用教育部工程研究中心,银川750021

出　　处：《灌溉排水学报》2014年第4期218-223,共6页Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

基　　金：水利部公益性行业科研专项经费项目(201301016-4);教育部"长江学者和创新团队发展计划"创新团队项目(IRT1067);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金联合资助课题(20106401110001);宁夏"十一五"科技攻关项目([2006]05);宁夏高等学校科学研究项目(NGY2013131)

摘　　要：依据宁夏地区1951—2012年实测气象数据,运用气候统计诊断与预测技术,通过划分区域,研究了宁夏气候变化的趋势及其未来气候变化的形势,并分析了未来气候变化对宁夏地区农业用水的影响。结果表明:1在全球气候变化的影响下,宁夏全区整体气候暖干化趋势明显。气温有明显上升,平均气温增速为0.32℃/10a,最高温度增速为0.24℃/10a,最低温度增速则达0.42℃/10a;平均相对湿度下降速率为0.6%/10a;风速显著下降,速率为0.06m/(s·10a)。降水无明显变化趋势。全区尺度上,蒸发量明显减少,速率达到60.47mm/10a。全区日照时数变化不明显。2宁夏地区未来气温呈上升趋势,降水可能会有所增加。在现状灌溉面积、种植结构不变的情况下,气候变暖将导致宁夏地区农业灌溉水量增加,对宁夏地区的主要作物小麦和玉米的单位面积灌水量影响较大。Based on the meteorological data （from 1951 to 2012） of Ningxia, the statistical diagnosis and prediction methods of climate were used to study the trend of climate change in current and in future, and the influence of future climate change on agricultural water requirement was also analyzed in Ningxia. The results showed that：①under the condition of global climate change, climate warming and drying trend was obvious as a whole in Ningxia. The temperature increased significantly, and the growing rates of the average temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature were 0.32 ℃/10a, 0. 24 ℃/10a, 0. 42 ℃/10a, respectively. The decline rate of the average relative humidity was 0.6%/10a, meanwhile the wind speed reduced significantly with the rate of 0.06 m/（s · 10a）. The rainfall had no obvious change trend. The evaporation was reduced significantly with the rate of 60.47 mm/10a. The change of sunshine duration was not significant. ②In the future, the temperatures would still rise and the precipitation may increase in Ningxia. With the irrigated area and planting structure keeping no change, climate warming would lead to the increase of irrigation water requirement and its impact on irrigation quota of major crops （wheat and corn） may be greater.

关 键 词：气候变暖 宁夏 作物 灌溉用水 

分 类 号：S274[农业科学—农业水土工程] S162[农业科学—农业工程]