中国货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应与价格效应分析  

An Empirical Analysis of the Quantity and Price Effects of Interest Rate Instruments in China

作　　者：李文乐[1] 刘生福[1] 郑淑君[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2014年第8期54-60,共7页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目<行业垄断收入分配效应的成因;测度与治理体系研究>(13CJY020);国家自然科学基金项目<中国通货膨胀预期的形成机制;测度与管理研究>(71203175)

摘　　要：通过构建VAR模型,实证分析中国货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应和价格效应。结论显示:在市场流动性过剩的金融环境下,商业银行信贷规模对利率政策的敏感性增强,货币政策利率工具调控的数量效应有所扩大;由于短期"费雪效应"的存在,弱化了货币政策利率工具调控的价格效应;货币政策的数量型工具对抑制通货膨胀见效相对更快。因此,货币当局在金融调控中,需要根据经济发展的不同周期阶段和金融环境,合理搭配运用价格型和数量型货币政策工具,提高货币政策的调控效率和预期效应。This paper build a VAR model to analyze the quantity and price effects of interest rate instruments in China . T he study found that in an environment of excess liquidity , bank credit scale becomes sensitive to interest rates , the quantity effects of interest based monetary policy widened . However ,since there is a short -term＂Fisher effect＂,the price effects of the interest rate instruments are weakened .The quantitative tools are more advantages in controlling the general price level .In practice , the monetary authorities should be flexible with the use of price -based and quantity based monetary policy instruments according to the different stages of the economic cycle and different financial environment in order to achieve policy objectives .

关 键 词：货币政策 数量效应 价格效应 通货膨胀 

分 类 号：F830[经济管理—金融学] O211.64[理学—概率论与数理统计]