石油探明储量增长趋势预测方法及应用  

Prediction Method of Proven Oil Reserve Growth Trend and Its Application

作　　者：刘国全[1] 贾丽[1] 刘娟霞[1] 张绍辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油大港油田公司勘探开发研究院

出　　处：《中国石油勘探》2014年第4期70-74,共5页China Petroleum Exploration

摘　　要：优选时窗开展统计分析,总结出某油公司控制储量升级的3个特点,即上报后5年是实现升级的时间界限;单块规模200×104t以上的控制储量是升级的主体;储层物性对控制储量升级具有重要影响。为系统评价控制储量升级潜力和能力,厘定了升级系数和升级率的概念,并建立了相应的评价参数。以该油公司现有累计石油控制储量为基础,进行升级评价,对探明储量增长趋势进行了预测。着眼于探区勘探开发已进入中后期和资源有限的现实,探索运用龚帕兹、哈伯特等数学模型,对未来储量增长趋势和规模进行了预测,经验证,预测误差在7%以内。综合运用上述两种方法,明确了该油公司新增探明储量趋势和未来5年增储规模,为勘探开发战略决策提供了较可靠的依据,具有一定推广意义。Selecting the time window for statistical analysis, this paper summarizes three characteristics of a certain oil company in upgrading its controlled reserves. The upgrading time is usually five years following submission of the reserves. The controlled reserve of a single block exceeding 200x104t is the backbone for upgrading. The petrophysical properties of a reservoir exert an important influence on upgrading of controlled reserve. The conceptions of upgrading coefficient and upgrading ratio are defined to systematically evaluate upgrading potential and capability of controlled reserve. The related parameters are also established for evaluation. Based on the company＇s current accumulated controlled oil reserve, this paper evaluates upgrading and predicts the proven oil reserve growth trend. With respect to the fact that the block is in its middle and late exploration and development stage with a limited reserve, the Gompertz model and Hubbert model are used to predict the future reserve growth trend and the future quantity of reserves. It is confirmed that the error is less than 7 percent. The above-mentioned two methods make clear the trend for the company＇s newly-additional proven reserve and the quantity of additional reserves in the next five years, providing a reliable basis for formulation of exploration and development strategy. It has great significance to put them into wide application.

关 键 词：升级评价法 数学模型法 升级系数 升级率 增长趋势 

分 类 号：TE15[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]