凝析气藏开发方案敏感性分析方法研究及应用  

Sensitivity Analysis Research and Application of Condensate Gas Reservoir Development Plan

作　　者：罗敏[1] 杨俊丰[1] 符琼芬 彭海军[1] 房强 

机构地区：[1]中油塔里木油田公司,新疆库尔勒841000 [2]盘锦泰利达软件技术有限公司,辽宁盘锦124010

出　　处：《当代化工》2014年第8期1459-1463,共5页Contemporary Chemical Industry

基　　金：塔里木油田分公司经费资助"塔里木盆地新一轮油气资源评价研究";项目号:TLM2013KT05

摘　　要：根据特殊的凝析气藏特点,提出并实现了基于单因素敏感性分析的凝析气藏开发方案经济评价风险分析方法,并以塔里木盆地某凝析气藏开发项目为例进行了敏感性分析。利用建设投资、经营成本、凝析油产量、凝析油价格、天然气产量和天然气价格六个风险因素,深入讨论了风险因素对开发方案的财务收益率和净现值的影响。并经过实例计算分析,得到与传统将气按照当量折算成油气当量分析的敏感性分析方法相比,该方法将油、气的产量和价格风险因素作为单因素分析更加符合凝析气藏实际特点的结论,有一定的实用价值。Based on the special characteristics of condensate gas reservoir, economic evaluation risk analysis method of condensate gas reservoir development plan based on a single factor sensitivity analysis was proposed and implemented. Taking a condensate gas reservoir development project in Tarim Basin as an example, effects of six risk factors on FIRR and FNPV of the development program were investigated, including construction invest, operating cost, condensate oil production, condensate oil price, gas production and gas price. Calculation and analysis of the example show that the method is more in line with the actual condensate gas reservoir characteristics compared with conventional methods which convert gas into oil by oil equivalent. And it’s proved that the method has some practical value.

关 键 词：凝析气藏 敏感性分析 开发方案 经济评价 

分 类 号：TE122[石油与天然气工程—油气勘探]