我国留学生人数的预测及其对居民消费的影响  

Prediction of abroad Chinese students and its impact on household consumption

作　　者：冯志平[1] 余东[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学理学院,武汉430065

出　　处：《南京信息工程大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第4期369-373,共5页Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology（Natural Science Edition）

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(11201356);冶金工业过程系统科学湖北省重点实验室基金(Y201319)

摘　　要：采用1985—2012年数据,利用时间序列分析方法,建立了刻画我国出国留学人数变动的模型ARIMA(2,2,2),得到较好的预测效果.同时研究了出国留学人数与我国城镇居民人均消费性支出之间的关系,建立了相应的模型,并进行了Granger因果关系检验.结果表明:出国留学生数的对数每增加1%,城镇居民人均消费性支出的对数将增加近0.06%.This article uses the data of Chinese students studying abroad during period of 1985 to 2012,and time series analysis method,to construct the model of ARIMA（2,2,2） to describe the change of abroad Chinese student number . The prediction results are in good agreement with the actual annual numbers of Chinese students studying a-broad.Meanwhile,the relationship between abroad Chinese students and annual per capita consumption expenditure in China？s urban area is studied,and a regression model is established hence.The co-integration relationship is ana-lyzed and Granger causality test is done. The results show that the logarithmic value of annual per capita consumption expenditure will increase nearly 0？06% due to the increase of logarithmic value of abroad Chinese students by 1%.

关 键 词：出国留学人数 时间序列分析 城镇居民人均消费性支出 GRANGER因果检验 

分 类 号：O213[理学—概率论与数理统计]