基于贝叶斯原理的水文频率分布线型优选应用研究  

Study on Optimum Selection and Application of Hydrological Frequency Distribution Linetype Based on Bayes' Theorem

作　　者：程龙 

机构地区：[1]中国水电顾问集团西北勘测设计院有限公司,西安710065

出　　处：《西北水电》2014年第4期5-8,共4页Northwest Hydropower

摘　　要：针对水文频率线型选择问题,基于贝叶斯理论,利用线型优选准则评价信息进行水文变量概率分布线型选择与综合研究。结合某水文站实测洪峰资料,采用7种常用备选线型,利用线型优选评价准则,得到各线型的相应后验概率,并以此为权重进行综合设计计算。结果表明,贝叶斯模型能够较好地综合各备选线型信息与实测资料信息,提高信息使用率,在一定程度上,减小线型选择的不确定性,为水文变量线型选择提供了新思路,在水文工程设计中具有一定可行性。Concerning the selection of the hydrological frequency linetype, selection and study on the distribution linetype of the hydrologi-cal variable probability are carried out by application of the evaluation data for the linetype optimizing code based on the Bayes＇theorem. According to the data on the peak flood measured at one hydrological gauge, 7 linetypes are applied.Based on the evaluation code for op-timization, the posterior probability of the corresponding linetype is obtained.Furthermore, the general design calculation is performed based on this as the weight.The practice presents that the Bayes model can better coordinate the linetype data and the measured data, im-prove the data application, decrease the uncertainty of the linetype selection and provides the selection of the hydrological variable line-type with new way.It is feasible in the design of the hydrological projects.

关 键 词：水文 频率分析 贝叶斯 线型 优选 

分 类 号：TV12[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P33[天文地球—水文科学]