我国房地产市场风险预警系统选择--基于二元选择模型的分析  

作　　者：马秋香[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南职业技术学院,河南郑州450046

出　　处：《企业经济》2014年第9期113-116,共4页Enterprise Economy

基　　金：河南省科技攻关计划项目“房地产市场风险预警系统研究--以郑州市为例”(批准号:122102310606)

摘　　要：本文在总结国内外房地产风险预警研究的基础上,论述了二元选择模型在预警房地产市场风险中的适应性,并利用我国内陆31个省市自治区1999-2012年的面板数据,对房地产市场风险预警指标的选择进行实证分析。probit模型和logit模型结果均显示:我国房地产市场风险初现,土地价格、房地产投资占固定投资的比重及房地产开发贷款额这三个指标较好地吻合了房地产市场的风险,而实际利率和房价增长率比国内生产总值的增长率对房地产市场风险没有明显的拟合作用。This paper summarized the past researches on real- estate risk system both at home and abroad, and examined the adapt- ability of binary choice model in real -estate market risk warning. Real -estate market risk warning indicators were ana- lyzed using panel data of thirty one Chinese provinces from years 1999 - 2012. Probit and Logit model results showed that the risk of Chinese real - estate market emerged. Indicators including land price, ratio of real - estate investment to fixed investment and real - estate loan fitted the risk of real - estate market. The real interest and the ratio of real - estate price growth to GDP growth did not fit well with real - estate market risk.

关 键 词：房地产市场 风险预警 二元选择模型 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F293.35