国际视野下最优储蓄率及其影响因素测度——基于索洛经济增长模型的研究  

Optimal Saving Rate and Its Influencing Factors Measurement under the International Vision——Based on the Solow Growth Model

作　　者：范祚军[1] 常雅丽[2] 黄立群[2] 

机构地区：[1]广西大学 [2]广西大学商学院

出　　处：《经济研究》2014年第9期20-33,共14页Economic Research Journal

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"基于条件约束的人民币国际化情景模拟与对策研究"(项目批准号:13BGJ038);教育部长江学者和创新团队发展计划"中国一东盟区域发展"研究创新团队资助

摘　　要：本文基于索洛的新古典经济增长模型,借助菲尔普斯的"黄金律水平",研究了全球108个国家的最优储蓄率与实际储蓄率的关系,结果表明:多数国家表现出最优储蓄率围绕实际储蓄率上下波动。考虑到各国经济增长目标的差异,本文进一步提出了以经济增长预期为变量的理想最优储蓄率,得出能达到国家预期经济发展水平的储蓄率水平。最后,综合影响储蓄率的经济性、制度性、结构性因素,用主成分回归分析法分析影响储蓄率的各类因素,发现这些因素随着内外部条件的变化对储蓄率的作用发生改变。Based on neoclassical economic growth model of Solow, this article studies the relationship between the optimal saving rate and the actual savings rate in 108 countries around the world with the help of Phelps＇s “ Golden Rule Level”. The results show that the optimal saving rate fluctuates up and down around the actual savings rate among the majority of countries. Considering the differences in national economic growth targets, this paper puts forward to the ideal optimal saving rate further which regards economic growth forecasts as the variable, and which can meet the national savings rate in the levels of economic development level. Finally, we analyze the various factors affecting the savings rate by using the principal component regression analysis, including the economic, institutional and structural factors, and find that these factors will also change as the change of internal and external conditions for the role of the saving rate.

关 键 词：新古典经济增长模型 最优储蓄率 理想最优储蓄率 主成分回归分析 

分 类 号：F831.2[经济管理—金融学] F224