地下水流数值模拟参数全局灵敏度分析  

Global Sensitivity Analysis of Groundwater Flow Numerical Simulation Parameters Based on the Uniform Design

作　　者：张丽华[1,2] 苏小四[1,2] 孟祥菲[1,2] 杜尚海[1,2] 孟婧莹[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学环境与资源学院,长春130021 [2]吉林大学水资源与环境研究所,长春130021

出　　处：《中国农村水利水电》2014年第8期92-97,共6页China Rural Water and Hydropower

基　　金：国家"十二五"科技支撑课题(2012BAJ25B10)

摘　　要：地下水数值模拟在与地下水相关的多个领域得到广泛应用,参数灵敏度分析能有效提高模拟结果的精度。最初的局部灵敏度分析方法只考虑了单个参数的影响,忽略了参数的共同作用;后期发展起来的全局灵敏度分析方法虽综合考虑了参数的共同作用,但在多参数、多水平条件下,抽样次数过多,对于数值模型来说可操作性差。将均匀设计法引入到黑龙江省林甸县地下水流数值模型的参数灵敏度分析中,选取模型中的7个参数进行研究,每个参数选取16个水平值,仅以16次抽样即达到了参数灵敏度分析的目的。Groundwater numerical simulation is widely applied in many fields related to groundwater. Its results, whose accuracy can be effectively improved by parameters sensitivity analysis, are very important to many decisions. The original local sensitivity analy- sis only considers the influence of a single parameter, ignoring the interactions between them. Later global sensitivity analysis which considers the interactions is developed, but under the condition of multi-parameters and multi-levels, the time of sampling is so ex- cessive that the operability is poor for the numerical model. In this paper, the uniform design method is introduced into the parame- ters sensitivity analysis of groundwater flow numerical model of Lindian County, Heilongjiang Province. 7 parameters of the model are considered, and each parameter has 16 levels. With 16 samplings, the purpose of parameters sensitivity analysis is achieved.

关 键 词：地下水流数值模拟 参数 全局灵敏度分析 均匀设计 最大对称差准则 林甸县 

分 类 号：P641.8[天文地球—地质矿产勘探]