基于未确知测度理论的煤矿底板突水量预测  

Forecast of Water Inrush from Coal Floor Based on Unascertained Measure Theory

作　　者：程爱平[1] 高永涛[1] 季毛伟[1] 吴平 

机构地区：[1]金属矿山高效开采与安全教育部重点实验室,北京100083 [2]武汉矿业人工程技术有限公司,湖北武汉430071

出　　处：《金属矿山》2014年第8期157-161,共5页Metal Mine

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(编号:51174016)

摘　　要：通过对煤矿底板突水影响因素的分析,选取地质构造、底板采动破坏深度、水压、底板隔水层4个主要影响因素作为判别指标,利用未确知测度理论,建立煤矿底板突水量预测模型。利用14个有代表性的采煤工作面底板突水资料作为训练样本,以样本均值为聚类中心,采用信息熵理论确定各判别指标的权重,通过计算样本的多指标综合测度,根据最小未确知测度距离原理判断样本所属类别,进而对底板突水量进行预测。用所建立的突水预测模型对4个待检验样本进行预测,将预测结果与实际结果做了比较,所得结果完全一致,表明基于未确知测度理论的煤矿底板突水量预测方法具有较好的实用性和有效性。According to the analysis of coal floor water inrush,four main influencing factors,such as geologic structure,floor mining-induced failure depth coal seam dip angle,hydraulic pressure and aquiclude thick,were regarded as judgment indexes to establish the forecast model of water inrush from coal floor by unascertained measure theory.Based on 14 groups of water inrush data in coal face as training sample,the sample average was set as cluster center,and the weight of judgment indexes was determined by information entropy theory.Through calculating the multi-index comprehensive measurement of sample,the classification of sample was judged by the principle of minimum unascertained measure distance,which was used to forecast the floor water inrush.The forecast model of water inrush was used to make forecast on the other four prediction samples,and the forecast values are the same as the measured values.The results show that the forecast method of water inrush from coal floor based on unascertained measure theory has a good practicability and validity.

关 键 词：未确知测度理论 底板突水量 单指标测度 预测模型 

分 类 号：TD742[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]