究竟谁才是中美贸易失衡的主因——来自中美分行业产品异质性视角的经验证据  

Who is the Main Reason of Sino-US Trade Imbalance?: An Empirical Evidence from the Perspective of United States Sub-sector Heterogeneity Analysis

作　　者：朱维巍[1] 

机构地区：[1]浙江金融职业学院金融系

出　　处：《世界经济研究》2014年第9期41-48,88,共8页World Economy Studies

基　　金：杭州市哲学社会科学规划课题(项目编号:D13YJ07);浙江省社会科学界联合会科普课题(项目编号:12ZC20);浙江省金融教育基金会课题(项目编号:2012Z03);浙江金融职业学院青年骨干教师培养经费资助;浙江金融职业学院省级优势专业(金融专业)建设成果;浙江金融职业学院"985"建设二期成果;浙江金融职业学院"攀越计划"研究成果

摘　　要：本文基于汇改后人民币汇率升值凸显的样本期对人民币汇率与中美两国分行业产品双边贸易之间的关系进行了实证研究,并据此探究和剖析了引起中美贸易失衡的主要根源。研究认为:人民币汇率并非引起中美贸易失衡的真正根源,中美两国贸易结构异质性引起的两国贸易互补性,经济发展阶段的差异性引起的购买力水平异质性和边际消费倾向差异性,以及产业结构差异性引起的中美两国经济主体的相异性才是引起中美贸易失衡的真正罪魁祸首,而且这些因素引起的失衡现象在短期内无法得到有效的逆转。与此同时,中美两国收入水平对中美贸易失衡也存在一定的影响效应。这意味着,要从根本上解决中美贸易失衡问题,中美双方应该共同致力于经济结构的转变,而并非过多地关注于人民币汇率。Based on the appreciation of the RMB exchange rate after the reform,this paper studies on the relationship between the RMB exchange rate and the Sino-US bilateral trade sub-sector products,and analyses the main cause of Sino-US trade imbalance. Research finds that,RMB exchange rate is not the real cause of Sino-US trade imbalance,Sino-US trade structure heterogeneity,different stages of economic development,as well as differences in the industrial structure are the real causes of Sino-US trade imbalance,and the imbalance caused by these factors in the short term can not be effectively reversed. Meanwhile,the United States and China on Sino-US trade imbalance are also caused by their income levels. This means that in order to solve fundamentally the problem of Sino-US trade imbalance,the two sides should work together to change the economic structure,and should not focus too much on the RMB exchange rate.

关 键 词：人民币汇率 贸易失衡 结构异质性 

分 类 号：F752.7[经济管理—国际贸易]