基于SPSS Modeler的超售方法在京沪高铁票额管理中的应用研究  

Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway ticket management based on SPSS Modeler overbooking strategy

作　　者：李刚 潘跃[2] 

机构地区：[1]铁道部信息技术中心,北京100844 [2]中国铁道科学研究院电子计算技术研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《铁路计算机应用》2014年第8期33-35,共3页Railway Computer Application

摘　　要：以京沪高铁客票预售为例,针对退票数据对预测结果的影响,使用工具S P S S Modeler并选择时间序列模型,估算可超额发售的票额数量。在应用于实际生产时,将其与现有客流预测的结果相结合,可弥补列车能力虚靡现象,提高列车利用率,同时,增加相应的社会和经济效益,实现旅客出行和铁路收益的双赢。Taking the ticketing and reservation of the Beijing-Shanghai High-speed Railway as an example,for the impact of a refund to the predicted results,the paper used SPSS Modeler and selected a time series model to estimate the number of tickets that might be over offered.When the model was applied to actual production,the result was combined with the existing traffic forecasts,aimed to make up the waste phenomenon of transportation capacity,improve the utilization of the train,while increase the social and economic benefits,implement a win-win of passenger travel and railway income.

关 键 词：京沪高铁 SPSS 时间序列 超售 

分 类 号：U293.22[交通运输工程—交通运输规划与管理] TP39[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]