基于有效决策界的电网台风灾害预警方法  

A typhoon disaster early warning method for power grid based on effective decision boundary

作　　者：方嵩 方丽华 熊小伏[2] 彭嵩 翁世杰[2] 胡华铿 王建[2] 

机构地区：[1]广东电网公司中山供电局,广东中山528400 [2]重庆大学输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室,重庆400044

出　　处：《电力系统保护与控制》2014年第18期83-88,共6页Power System Protection and Control

摘　　要：台风灾害是引发电网事故的最为严重的自然因素之一。为了提升电网抵御台风的能力,提出一种电网台风灾害实时预警方法,可实现对电网台风灾害的定量化短时临近预警。首先将预警区域按经纬度划分为0.01°×0.01°的网格并整理内含线路的网格集合ω。然后根据气象局提供的台风相关信息,通过比较ω内网格中心点到台风中心的距离与台风十级风圈大小得到有效决策界。进而确定风险线路集并计算风险线路的停运概率,据此判断台风灾害预警等级。同时发布相应的预警信息,为电网运行人员制定有针对性的稳控预案和防风灾调度策略提供依据和参考。Among the natural factors which can cause accidents to power grid, the typhoon disaster is one of the most serious. In order to enhance the ability of power grid to withstand typhoon disaster, a typhoon disaster early warning method for power grid is proposed, which can realize short-term early warning of typhoon disaster for power grid quantitatively. Firstly, the warning area is divided into 0.01°×0.01° grids by longitude and latitude and the set of grids ω which have transmission lines inside is sorted out. Then according to the typhoon information provided by the meteorological administration, the effective decision boundary is obtained through comparing the distance from the center of grid in set ω to the center of typhoon with the wind radius of level ten. Thus the risk set of lines is determined using effective decision boundary, and the early warning level of typhoon disaster can be obtained by calculating the outage probability of risky lines. Meanwhile, the corresponding warning information should be released, providing basis and reference for the operating staff of power grid to work out the targeted control plan for grid stability and scheduling strategies of preventing typhoon disaster.

关 键 词：电网 台风灾害 预警系统 有效决策界 停运概率 

分 类 号：TM76[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]