中国人口空间流动格局与省际流动影响因素研究  

Spatial Patterns of Population Mobility and Determinants of Inter-provincial Migration in China

作　　者：张耀军[1] 岑俏 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院

出　　处：《人口研究》2014年第5期54-71,共18页Population Research

基　　金：中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项基金)资助项目(批准号12XNI002)

摘　　要：利用"五普"及"六普"数据,运用空间分析方法,从省内流动和省际流动两个角度,分省、市、县三个层面对我国人口空间流动格局进行了空间自相关分析。结果表明,省外流入人口呈现明显的空间集聚,中、西部人口向东部沿海集中化流动,热点分析进一步验证了珠三角、长三角、京津冀三个全国性集聚中心的存在。运用一般回归模型和空间回归模型,结论表明影响省内和省外人口流入的因素同中有异。第三产业的发展和较高的职工工资是城市吸引省内和省外流动人口的重要因素,社会公共资源对省内人口流入影响较大,而就业率和城市化水平对省外人口流入影响较大。这些发现可为国家新型城镇化过程中培育发展中西部城市群、加快发展中小城市等战略提供有益参考。Based on the data of 2000 and 2010 population censuses in China, this paper investi- gates the spatial patterns of Chinese population mobility using spatial analysis methods. Visualized a- nalysis and spatial autocorrelation analysis are conducted for intra - and inter - provincial population in - migration respectively at province, city and county levels. Results show that there is a significant trend of geographical concentration for inter - provincial migration from eastern coastal region to middle and western regions in China. Hotspots analysis verifies three nationwide agglomeration centers： Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta and Beiiing- Tianiin -Hebei Metropolitan Area. On these bases, this paper quantitatively identifies city attractiveness factors that respectively have impacts on intra - and inter - provincial population in - migration at the city level, using ordinary multivariate regression and spatial regression models. Development of tertiary industry and local wage level both affect the choice of mi- gration destinations for intra -provincial and inter- provincial floating population; local social public re- sources have significant impact on intra -provincial migration; high employment rate and high urbani- zation rate ore ＂pulling＂ factors for inter- provincial migration. Policy implications are discussed.

关 键 词：人口流动 空间分布 集聚中心 城市吸引力 新型城镇化 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]