再论中国金融自由化的次序  

Rethinking the Sequence of the Financial Liberalization of China

作　　者：陈晓莉[1] 胡金焱[1] 

机构地区：[1]山东大学经济学院

出　　处：《南开学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第5期58-65,共8页Nankai Journal:Philosophy,Literature and Social Science Edition

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重大项目(71333009)

摘　　要：目前中国金融改革中存在的主要问题是"倒逼"式金融改革,即影子银行体系发展倒逼利率市场化改革,离岸与在岸市场套利倒逼汇率制度改革,人民币国际化倒逼资本账户开放。各项改革推进的先后顺序和快慢取决于相关的配套措施是否完善,市场环境和市场主体是否能够承受自由化改革后的冲击。因此,尽管中国的汇率和利率自由化与资本账户开放已经被迫同时启动,但在具体的实施路径上还是要遵循一定的先后次序,根据配套措施的完善程度和紧迫性,应该先推进利率的市场化改革和汇率制度改革,资本账户特别是短期资本流动的开放要作为最后一步。The financial reform in China is a forced financial reform. The development of shadow banking forced the liberalization of the interest rate, the arbitrage between onshore and offshore market forced the reform of the exchange rate system, and the internationalization of RMB forced the opening of the capital account. The sequence and the speed of the different reforms are determined by whether the relevant supporting measures are perfect and whether the market environment and the subjects of the market can withstand the impact of the liberalization. As a result, even though the liberalization of exchange and interest rates in China and the opening of capital accounts have been forced to start at the same time, certain priorities should be followed when the financial liberalization is to be carried out. According to the degree of perfection and the urgency of supporting measures, the market-oriented reform of exchange rates and the reform of interest rates system should be the first step, while the opening of capital accounts, especially the opening of short term capital flow, should be the second in step.

关 键 词：利率市场化 汇率制度改革 资本账户开放 

分 类 号：F832.6[经济管理—金融学]