房价影响消费的非线性特征——基于1999-2012年中国宏观数据的实证分析  

Nonlinear Influence of House Price on Consumption in China:An Empirical Analysis Based on Data of 1999-2012

作　　者：肖卫国[1] 袁建港 袁威[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院

出　　处：《经济评论》2014年第5期16-26,共11页Economic Review

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"我国流动性结构失衡的宏观经济影响与货币政策选择研究"(编号:14BJY187);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目"住房价格波动;消费与中国最优货币政策选择:基于异质性预期视角"(编号:11YJA790169);教育部哲学社会科学重大课题攻关项目"欧美国家债务危机对我国的影响及对策研究"(编号:12JZD029);中国博士后科学基金资助项目"流动性;资产价格;家庭决策与中国货币政策选择"(编号:2012M521446)的资助

摘　　要：在考虑异质性家庭流动性约束的基础上,本文使用MS-VAR模型和Probit模型考察了1999-2012年中国房价对消费的非线性影响特征,结果表明:房价对消费存在正向影响和负向影响两种区制,并且这两种区制在样本期间多次发生转换。当受流动性约束家庭占比增加时,房价上涨加剧了家庭流动性约束状况而抑制消费增长;当无流动性约束家庭占比增加时,在中长期房价上涨能够促进消费增长。上述结果得到了C-M模型比较检验的支撑。由此得到的政策建议是:房地产调控政策的制定应密切关注家庭流动性约束的变化;当前多数中国家庭面临较强的流动性约束,房价上涨会抑制居民消费的增长,因此必须控制房价的过快上涨。Explicitly considering the liquidity constraints of heterogeneous families, this paper investigates the nonlinear characteristics of the influence that house price exerted on consumption in China from 1999 to 2012 by combining Markov - Switching Vector Auto Regression model and the Probit model. The results show that nonlinearity exactly exists within the sample period. Rising house price will suppress the increase of consumption when the liquidity constraints are serious, while boosting consumption in the mid - long term once the liquidity situation is improved. This conclusion is consistent with the results of C - M model. The policy suggestion is that the authority should pay attention to the liquidity situation of families during real estate controlling. Too fast rising of house price should be controlled to avoid negative influence on consumption as the liquidity constraints have become more serious in recent years.

关 键 词：房价 消费 非线性特征 流动性约束 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F293.3