具有不确定性的溯因推理  

Abductive Reasoning with Uncertainty

作　　者：张学立[1] 王东浩[2,3] 

机构地区：[1]贵州民族大学法学院,贵州贵阳550025 [2]天津职业技术师范大学社会科学部,天津300071 [3]天津外国语大学欧美哲学研究所,天津300204

出　　处：《南昌大学学报（人文社会科学版）》2014年第5期38-43,共6页Journal of Nanchang University(Humanities and Social Sciences)

基　　金：国家社会科学基金项目"中西方必然推理比较研究--以<九章算术>刘徽注为对象"(11XZX009);全国教育科学规划项目"职业院校教师职业道德教育的途径与方法研究"(CJA114023)

摘　　要：溯因推理描述的是发现假说和规则的过程,这些假说和规则依据相应条件能推出已给定的结论。另外,溯因推理还关涉主观概率逻辑,它可以对某一特定假说能否推断出相应结论的可能性进行评估。较于纯粹的概率方法,它对于未知因素的把握在命题判断领域具有重要意义。基于或然性的溯因推理通常应用于很多学科,尤其在医疗诊断中,与条件概率相结合的医疗测试结果经常用来确定某种疾病产生的可能性。Abductive reasoning describes the process of discovery hypotheses and rules, which are based on these corresponding conditions to launch the given conclusion. Additionally, abductive reasoning is also concerned with subjective probability logic;it can infer whether a particular hypothesis to assess the likelihood about the corresponding conclusions. Compared with the purely probabilistic methods, it has important significance in the part of determining proposition about unknown factors. Based contingent of abductive reasoning is usually used in many disciplines, such as in medical diagnostics ; the conditional probability of medical test results is often used to determine the likelihood of certain diseases produced.

关 键 词：溯因 演绎 主观概率逻辑 信念 不确定性 

分 类 号：B812.23[哲学宗教—逻辑学]