中国环境库兹涅茨曲线的验证——基于省域数据的空间面板计量分析  

Verification of China's Environmental Kuznets Curve:Spatial Panel Econometric Analysis Based on Provincial Data

作　　者：安虎森[1] 王雷雷[1] 吴浩波[1] 

机构地区：[1]南开大学经济研究所

出　　处：《南京社会科学》2014年第9期1-8,共8页Nanjing Journal of Social Sciences

摘　　要：本文根据2000-2012年中国31个省(自治区、直辖市)的面板数据,通过检验建立面板空间误差模型,分别以二氧化硫排放量、烟(粉)尘排放量、废水排放总量和固体废物产生量衡量环境污染程度,对中国环境库兹涅茨曲线进行了实证检验。本文研究表明:"倒N"型环境库兹涅茨曲线在中国确实存在,而且还验证单位生产总值的污染排放量(产生量)随地区经济发展的提高而下降;四种污染排放物都具有显著的空间自相关性,这意味着各地区的节能降耗减排政策不能孤立地实施,应在较大空间范围内同时实施,这需要中央政府与地方政府之间加强协调;过分强调第二产业的发展不利于环境改善,要么是通过技术革新降低污染排放量,要么促进产业结构的调整。Based on the panel data of China＇ s 31 provinces during 2000 -2012, the paper es- tablishes panel spatial error model to verify China＇ s Environmental Kuznets Curve empirically. And environmental pollution degree is respectively measured by sulfur dioxide emissions, smoke （dust） emissions, waste water discharge and the total amount of solid waste generated. This paper verifies that the Environmental Kuznets Curve exists with ＂inverted N＂ shape, and pollution emissions in per unit GDP decrease with regional economy developing. Four kinds of pollution emissions all have sig- nificant spatial autocorrelation, which means energy saving and emission reduction policies cannot be implemented in isolation, but should be implemented in a wide range of space, which requires en- hanced coordination between central government and local governments. Too much emphasis on the development of secondary industry is not conducive to environmental improvement, and we should reduce pollution emissions through technological innovation, or promote the adjustment of industrial structure.

关 键 词：环境库兹涅茨曲线 面板空间误差模型 空间自相关性 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]