我国制造业PMI购进价格分类指数与PPI的关系研究  

Research on the Relationship between Purchasing Price Sub-index of China's Manufacturing PMI and PPI

作　　者：宋科进[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行福州中心支行,福建福州350003

出　　处：《价格月刊》2014年第9期4-7,共4页

摘　　要：制造业PMI购进价格分类指数与工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)之间存在密切的关系。通过构建VAR模型和VEC模型,并进行协整检验、格兰杰因果关系检验、脉冲响应以及方差分解等实证分析的结果显示,制造业PMI购进价格分类指数与PPI之间存在长期均衡关系,购进价格分类指数是引起PPI变动的原因,且对PPI具有正向冲击作用。从长期来看,购进价格分类指数每上涨1%,会拉动PPI上涨0.3919%。因此,根据购进价格分类指数的升降来预测PPI变化是可行的。The paper analyzes that purchasing price sub-index of manuthcturing PMI is more closely related to producer price index for manufactured goods （PPI） than manufacturing PMI. In order to research on the relationship, this paper applies VAR model and VEC model, by using co-integration, Granger causality tests, impulse response and variance decomposition. As a result, there is a long term stable equilibrium relation between purchasing price sub-index of China＇s manufacturing PMI and PPI. Purchasing price sub-index is a Granger reason to PPl. The response is positive about purchasing price sub-index to PPI. In the long run, every 1 percent increase in tema of purchasing price sub-index has 0.3919 percent pulling effect on PPI. Therefore, it is feasible to predict PPI by the change of purchasing price sub-index.

关 键 词：制造业PMI 工业生产者出厂价格 VAR模型 VEC模型 

分 类 号：F726[经济管理—产业经济]