我国城市扩张、城市转型与碳排放的关系  

Relationship between City Expansion,City Transformation and Carbon Dioxide Emissions of China

作　　者：卢祖丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南城建学院工商学院,河南平顶山467036

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2014年第5期121-126,131,共7页Areal Research and Development

摘　　要：利用1998—2012年我国省域面板数据,应用主成分分析方法构建城市扩张指数和城市转型指数,并测算各省份各年的碳排放总量,在此基础上,采用基于VECM的格兰杰因果检验来探讨城市扩张、城市转型与碳排放之间的长短期关系,并应用广义脉冲响应函数分析变量间的短期冲击机制。研究显示:(1)短期内,城市转型与碳排放之间存在双向因果关系。(2)碳排放与城市扩张联合形成了城市转型的长、短期格兰杰原因。(3)长期中,碳排放与城市转型联合形成了城市扩张的格兰杰原因。(4)城市扩张与城市转型仅仅能在短期内联合构成了碳排放增加的格兰杰原因,并不能产生长久稳定的格局。据此,得出一些科学规划城市发展及有效推进减少碳排放的政策启示。Based on the provincial panel data in China during 1998--2012, this study applies the principal component analysis （PCA） to construct the city expansion （CE） and city transformation （CT） indices, as well as estimates the carbon dioxide emissions （CDE） in each province every year. Then, a Granger causality test based on VECM is used to study the long-and-short-term relationships between CE, CT, and CDE, while a generalized im- pulse response function is also applied to explore their short-term impact mechanism. The main results are as fol- lows： （1） There exists a bilateral causal relationship between CT and CDE. （2）CDE together with CE are the Granger-cause of CT both in long-term and short-term. （3） CDE and CT are the long-term Granger-cause of CE. （4） CE and CT are the Granger-cause of CDE in short-term but not in long-term. Thus, this paper obtains some policy implications for planning city development and promoting carbon reduction.

关 键 词：城市扩张 城市转型 碳排放 

分 类 号：F062.2[经济管理—政治经济学]