基于R/S分析的黑河出山年径流量灰色预测  

Grey Prediction of Out-Mountainous Annual Runoff of Heihe River Based on R/S Analysis

作　　者：李建林[1] 昝明军 李宝玲[1] 

机构地区：[1]河南理工大学资源环境学院,河南焦作454003

出　　处：《地域研究与开发》2014年第5期127-131,共5页Areal Research and Development

基　　金：国家自然科学基金重点项目(91025002)

摘　　要：径流过程具有分形和灰色特征。基于此，将R／S分析与灰色系统理论相结合，提出了R／S灰色预测模型以预报黑河出山径流量。针对1949-2011年莺落峡水文站年径流量资料，首先进行R／S分析，确定径流量序列的Hurst指数和平均循环周期T；然后在一个周期内进行径流量灰色预测。结果表明：黑河出山径流量循环周期在20—25年之间，在进行R／S灰色预测时，取T=20为宜；R／S灰色预测结果的精度高于直接进行灰色预测。该方法拓宽了分形和灰色理论在径流过程研究的应用范围，为径流量的科学预测提供了一种新方法。Runoff process has both fractal and gray characteristics. So R/S gray prediction model for predic- ting runoff sequence is proposed by means of combining gray system theory with R/S analysis. Based on annual runoff data from 1949 to 2011 in Yingluoxia Station, the out-mountainous runoff sequences of Heihe River is ana- lyzed, and use R/S method, to determine the Hurst exponent and the average cycle firstly; then in one cycle, out- mountainous annual runoff is predicted by gray. It is showed that the average cycle （ T ） of out-mountainous annual runoff sequence of Heihe River is about 20 - 25 years, and if T was 20, the result of gray prediction would best. The prediction accuracy of R/S gray prediction model is 91.04%, which is higher than the accuracy of the gray prediction model. R/S gray prediction model enlarges the applied scope of fractal theory and grey model, and pro- vides a new scientific method for predicting annual runoff sequence.

关 键 词：出山径流 R S分析 循环周期 灰色预测 黑河 

分 类 号：P338.9[天文地球—水文科学]