风险认知因素对创业意愿的影响研究——感知风险的中介效应与规则聚焦的调节效应  

The Influence of Risk Cognition on Entrepreneurial Intention——Mediating Role of Risk Perception and Moderating Role of Regulatory Focus

作　　者：李敏[1] 董正英[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院,上海200052

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2014年第3期26-32,41,共8页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(70973077)

摘　　要：基于创业认知理论、行为经济学与规则聚焦理论,采用问卷调查法,探索个体创业者风险认知因素对创业意愿形成的影响作用,提出创业感知风险、认知偏差、规则聚焦与创业意愿之间影响关系的研究模型,并通过303份有效样本验证了在控制风险倾向以后,感知风险在认知偏差(过分自信和控制幻想)对创业意愿的影响作用中所起的中介效应以及规则聚焦在认知偏差(过分自信和控制幻想)对感知风险的影响作用中所起的调节效应,得出结论:1)在创业选择阶段可以适当容忍决策过程中的认知偏差;2)个体对创业风险的感知水平存在差异,且风险感知水平较低的个体更可能创业;风险倾向对创业意愿也有着显著的正向影响作用,这从行为学研究角度肯定了风险倾向在创业意愿形成过程中的作用;3)创业的成功需依赖促进型聚焦和预防型聚焦的结合。对于不同聚焦导向的个体,可以实行不同的鼓励方式和培养计划。One of the most important research questions addressed by entrepreneurship researchers is ＂Why do some persons choose to become entrepreneurs？＂ Since the market is full of risks throughout the entrepreneurial process,previous literatures suggest entrepreneurs tend to be riskier than non-entrepreneurs.However,there are no consistent conclusions about the effect of risk propensity on entrepreneurial intention.A more convincing point of view is that entrepreneurs perceive risks differently from non-entrepreneurs.The fewer risk individuals perceive,the more likely they will choose to become entrepreneurs.In other words,most entrepreneurs do not think they make risky decisions,whereas others think otherwise.Such decision is apparently irrational and decision-makers are very likely to be influenced by cognitive bias because of dynamic entrepreneurial environment has high complexity and uncertainty.In addition,the effect of cognitive biases on entrepreneurs is influenced by regulatory focus.The regulatory focus theory embodies the idea about how people achieve their goal.In conclusion,entrepreneurial intention is a function of various factors,such as cognition,motivation and decision-making factors..The purpose of this study is to explore the influence of risk cognition on entrepreneurial intention based on entrepreneurial cognition,behavioral economics,and regulatory focus theories.We propose a conceptual model to depict the relationship among entrepreneurial perceived risk,risk propensity,cognitive bias,regulatory focus,and entrepreneurial intention.A survey study was conducted to collect data from 303 potential entrepreneurs.The result of this research implies that when controlling for risk propensity,perceived risk plays significant mediating roles between cognitive bias （e.g.overconfidence and the illusion of control） and entrepreneurial intention.Regulatory focus plays significant moderating roles between cognitive bias （e.g.overconfidence and the illusion of control） and perceived risk.This study ha

关 键 词：创业意愿 风险认知 规则聚焦 中介变量 调节变量 

分 类 号：C934[经济管理—管理学]