二元结构、实际汇率与巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应——基于面板门限模型的实证分析  

Dual Economy Structure,The Real Exchange Rate and Balassa-Samuelson Effect:Based on An Threshold Model Analysis

作　　者：孙章杰[1] 傅强[1] 

机构地区：[1]重庆大学经济与工商管理学院,重庆400044

出　　处：《管理工程学报》2014年第3期42-48,共7页Journal of Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management

基　　金：国家教育部博士点基金资助项目(20100191110033);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(CDJXS11021112)

摘　　要：运用Hansen提出的面板门限模型,以二元结构为门限变量,研究了43个国家1980～2010年不同收入国家,基于二元结构变化的巴拉萨—萨缪尔森效应的大小（B-S效应）,研究发现：二元结构对B-S效应的影响存在明显的双门限效应,高收入国家不存在二元结构问题,其B-S效应显著;中等收入国家基本上跨过了第一门限值,其B-S效应存在,但弱于高收入国家,而低收入国家基本不存在B-S效应;表明在不同二元结构下,由于工资不会同劳动生产率同步增长,劳动生产率对实际汇率的存在不完全传导机制,可以解释“人民币汇率之谜”.Balassa-Samuelson Effect was proposed in1964.Since then,no unified conclusion has been reached regarding the validity of effect in the developing economies.The B-S effect theory discusses the impact of real exchange rate that is affected by the relative productivity trends of home and abroad.If the rapid increase in productivity leads to strong economic growth,there is an inherent appreciation requirement for the real exchange rate.From the current research results,the B-S effect is evident in high-income countries.There is a considerable controversy whether it is suitable for developing countries.The wage rates do not increase with the improvement of the labor productivity because of the existence of the dual structure in the developing economies.There is no appreciation pressure of the real exchange rate if the growth of wage rate is not synchronized with that of labor productivity.The price index of a country will sharply rise when the growth of the wage rate is synchronized with the growth of labor productivity.There is an uncertainty about the overall price level when the growth rate of the wage rate is less than that of labor productivity.However,the overall price level will decline if money wages remain unchanged.Therefore,the real exchange rate is constant and even the devaluation may occur in developing economies.A few studies investigated the B-S effect involving the dual structure.Is there the threshold effect of the dual structure between the real exchange rate and the B-S effect？ Will the B-S effect increase its significance level along with the improvement of the dual structure？ Is the B-S effect quite different between different countries under different dual structure thresholds？ To answer these questions,this paper employs the panel threshold model of Hansen （1999） to study the threshold effect of B-S among countries with different income levels.We also analyze the panel data of 43 countries from 1980 to 2010 by setting the dual structure as a threshold variable.Usually,there is a non-l

关 键 词：二元结构 B-S效应 面板门限模型 

分 类 号：F823[经济管理—财政学]