灰色系统理论在佳木斯市需水量预测中的应用  

Application of Grey System Theory in Forecasting Water Demand in Jiamusi City

作　　者：白雪峰[1,2] 赵雨森[1] 戚颖[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学林学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150040 [2]东北农业大学水利与建筑学院,黑龙江哈尔滨150030

出　　处：《安徽农业科学》2014年第26期9123-9124,9128,共3页Journal of Anhui Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：黑龙江省教育厅科学技术研究项目(12531051)

摘　　要：水是人类生产生活中不可缺少的资源,也是整个国民经济的命脉。近年来对于需水量的预测被高度重视,由于在实际生产和生活中,实际的需水量要受到多因素的影响,往往因为因素的忽略、数据资料的局限性、预测方法的不当,导致预测结果与实际的需水量之间的差距很大。应用灰色预测理论,建立GM(1,N)模型,对佳木斯市的农业用水、工业用水、生活用水和生态用水进行了预测。所建立的模型经过误差分析,证明该模型适用于影响因素复杂,信息不完备的情况,为研究区域水资源的综合利用提供理论依据。Water is indispensable resource to human production and living, is also the lifeblood of the whole national economy. For highly at- tention is played on water demand prediction in recent years, because in the actual production and life, the actual water demand is influenced by various factors, but the factors are often ignored, the limitations of the data, the improper prediction method, leading to the big gap between actual prediction and the actual water demand. By using grey theory, this paper establishes the GM （1, N） model to predict agricultural, in- dustrial, domestic and ecological water use. The established model through residual analysis, proves that the model is suitable for the complex factors, incomplete information, providing theoretical basis for the research of regional water resources comprehensive utilization.

关 键 词：灰色系统理论 需水量 误差分析 佳木斯市 

分 类 号：S181.3[农业科学—农业基础科学]