基于径流和潮汐的长江口盐水入侵统计预测研究  

Statistical prediction study of runoff and tide on Changjiang River saltwater intrusion

作　　者：郑晓琴[1] 肖文军[1] 于芸[1] 潘灵芝[1] 

机构地区：[1]国家海洋局东海预报中心,上海200081

出　　处：《海洋预报》2014年第4期18-23,共6页Marine Forecasts

基　　金：国家海洋局东海分局青年科技基金(201201);国家海洋局海洋赤潮灾害立体监测技术与应用国家重点实验室项目(MATHA200906);上海市科委科研项目(14231200400)

摘　　要：根据2008年1月—2010年4月长江口主要盐度测点的最新资料,讨论枯季北支盐水倒灌过程中,北支青龙港盐度对于南支主要测站盐度变化的时间和强度响应,通过大量的数据试验,建立盐度、径流和潮差三者之间的多元回归关系,得到青龙港盐度统计预测模型,通过定量化青龙港日特征盐度的预报,可以较好地预测南支受到盐水入侵影响的时间和强度,为预防长江河口盐水入侵灾害起到一定的警示作用。该统计模型在长江口盐水入侵后报(2009年10月到2010年4月)以及预报(2011年上半年)工作中结果均良好,为陈行、宝钢水库等水源地的安全供水进行合理调度、避咸蓄淡等工作具有一定的指导意义。Based on the salinity data in Changjiang estuary during the flow backward process of saline water from north branch in dry sea from Jan 2008 to Apt 2010, the relationship between salinity at Qinglong Port station located at the north branch and strength variation of observed salinity at south branch is discussed. According to these data, a statistical prediction model of salinity at Qinglong Port is conducted through the multiple regression relationship of salinity, runoff and tidal range. The results show that the simulated data are consistent with the observed data and this model can well predict the strength of saline water spilling Over from the North Branch to the South Branch. Besides, the model is well applied in hind forecasting of salt-water intrusion from Oct. 2009 to Apr. 2010 and forecasting of salt-water intrusion inform Jan. to May in 2011.

关 键 词：径流和潮汐 盐水入侵 多元回归方程 统计预测模型 

分 类 号：P731.12[天文地球—海洋科学]