财务困境理论的预测动态性改进与应用  

Research on Dynamics of Financial Distress Theory and its Prediction

作　　者：庄倩[1] 陈良华[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,江苏南京211189

出　　处：《审计与经济研究》2014年第5期69-76,共8页Journal of Audit & Economics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(71272111);国家高校博士点专项基金项目(20120092110060);江苏省创新人才培养基金项目(CXZZ12_0132)

摘　　要：财务困境理论核心内容是如何提高预测动态性能力。探讨财务困境的动态性内涵和划分动态发展过程不同时期特征,建立过程模型和判别模型,改进了财务困境的动态预测方法。应用卡尔曼滤波思想,设计通用的超前n步预测算法,优化前瞻性预测功能。Based on dynamics, the research on how the financial distress happens and its prediction is conducted. The dynam- ic connotation and characteristics of financial distress is described. The dynamic development process of financial distress is divided into several periods. The dynamic prediction of financial distress is further improved by establishing a process model and a discriminant model. A general n-step-ahead forecast algorithm based on Kalman filter is designed in order for prospective prediction. The empirical results prove the accuracy and advance of predicting financial distress using this dynamic method.

关 键 词：财务困境 公司财务 公司治理结构 资本结构理论 破产理论 清偿理论 困境预测 卡尔曼滤波 

分 类 号：F234.4[经济管理—会计学]