基于ARMA模型的2014年辽宁省生猪生产预测预警  

A Forecasting and Early Warning in 2014 of Pig Production in Liaoning Province which Based on ARMA Model

作　　者：程彬[1] 郑广宇[1] 李英[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁省动物卫生监测预警中心,辽宁沈阳110001

出　　处：《中国畜牧杂志》2014年第18期48-53,共6页Chinese Journal of Animal Science

摘　　要：本文从分析生猪供需平衡角度入手,确立生产风险预警。首先以2008年以来的生猪出栏监测数据为基础,采用ARMA模型进行分析并对后期出栏趋势进行预测,再将预测值代入根据辽宁省猪肉消费实际情况建立起的预警警限中,以此确定未来预测期内生猪生产是否处于报警状态。通过理论模型得出的预测预警信息,为政府、相关部门和广大养殖户提供决策参考。This paper analyzes the hog supply and demand balance angles, establishing production risk warning. Firstly, use the ARMA model to analyze and forecast the trend of post slaughter, which based on the pig slaughter monitoring data since 2008. Then fed the prediction values into the warning limit which based on the actual situation of Liaoning province pork consumption, in order to determine the future forecast period of pig production is in a state of alarm. Through the early warning and forecast theory model that provides the policy-making reference for the government, the relevant departments and the majority of farmers.

关 键 词：生猪 模型 预警 

分 类 号：F307.3[经济管理—产业经济]