基于SLEUTH模型的阜新市城市扩展模拟  

Simulation of urban expansion based on SLEUTH model in Fuxin City,Northeast China

作　　者：吴春华[1,2] 胡远满[2] 黄培泉[3] 

机构地区：[1]广东工贸职业技术学院测绘遥感信息工程系,广州510510 [2]中国科学院沈阳应用生态研究所,沈阳110016 [3]广东青年职业学院计算机工程系,广州510507

出　　处：《应用生态学报》2014年第9期2671-2676,共6页Chinese Journal of Applied Ecology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目(41171155);国家自然科学基金项目(41201454)资助

摘　　要：基于SLEUTH模型对1997—2013年阜新市城市扩展进行模拟.结果表明:阜新市转型进程中城市扩展最优系数分别为:扩散系数6、繁衍系数64、蔓延系数44、坡度阻抗系数52、道路引力系数90.阜新市主要表现为新中心增长(自发式增长产生的新城市中心)和边缘增长(新、老城市中心的进一步增长);阜新市转型进程中城市扩展受道路引力影响很大,其值达到90;阜新市作为资源枯竭型城市,矿区枯竭带来了滑坡、塌陷等一系列自然灾害,研究期间城市扩展受到坡度的阻抗是很大的.从城市规模角度看,道路引力对小城市的作用大于大城市;从新中心增长情况来看,小城市更容易出现新中心增长.阜新作为资源型城市,目前确定为资源枯竭型城市,经济转型是头等大事,引进的外资企业、新建的开发区、工业用地等在选址上更偏向道路交通便利区域,受道路影响较大,而且更容易出现飞地式发展.利用SLEUTH模型校正所得的最优参数,对阜新市城市范围进行模拟,其中,城市边缘增长的模拟效果较好,城市新中心即飞地增长的模拟效果较差,主要因为新中心增长受决策影响较大,元胞关系作用不大.2001、2006、2010、2013年的阜新市城市范围模拟精度较高.Urban expansion was simulated by SLEUTH model based on the data of Fuxin City, Northeast China in 1997-2013. The optimal parameters of urban expansion were obtained from SLEUTH model calibration, with the diffusion coefficient as 6, breed coefficient as 64, spread coefficient as 44, slope resistance as 52 and road gravity as 90. Urban growth types in Fuxin mainly belonged to new center growth and edge growth, i.e., the further expansion of new and old urban centers. Urban expansion was greatly influenced by roads. Fuxin, as a resourceexhausted city, suffered from the natural disasters, such as landslides, subsidence, and so on. The slope resistance of urban expansion was large in the development of urban land. From the perspective of urban scale, road gravity in smaller city was greater than in larger city. The urban expansion in smaller city was more inclined to the new center growth. The locations of enterprises and new development zones were more interested in the area of good transport facilities. Meanwhile, they were inclined to new center growth. Urban expansions were simulated based on optimal parameters of SLEUTH model. The simulated result of edge growth was better than the simulated result of new spreading center growth, because new spreading center growth was susceptible to policymaking, and cellular influence was little. The simulated accuracy of urban land in 2001, 2006, 2010 and 2013 was high.

关 键 词：资源枯竭型城市 经济转型 棚户区改造 城市用地 SLEUTH模型 模拟 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F299.2