基于加权马尔可夫链的神木县年降雨量预测分析  

Prediction of rainfall based on the weighted Markov chain in Shenmu county

作　　者：王晓明[1] 文望[1] 冯忠良[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安科技大学地质与环境学院,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《山西建筑》2014年第29期239-241,共3页Shanxi Architecture

摘　　要：应用马尔可夫链的方法,以规范化的各阶自相关系数为权,建立了适合于预测神木县年降雨量的加权马尔可夫链模型,结合模糊集理论中的级别特征值,预测了神木县2004年的年降雨量,并采用平稳分布估计了神木县年降雨量处于各状态的重现期,结果表明,神木县年降雨量处于正常年几率最大。The weighted Markov chain method is applied to each order autocorrelation coefficient of the standardization of rights, established suitable model for predicting annual rainfall of Shenmu county and connecting with the level characteristic value in the theory of fuzzy sets, forecasting the 2004 annual rainfall. And the results show that the possibility of normal year and weak drought year is the larger according to the stationary distribution.

关 键 词：年降雨量 加权马尔可夫链 模糊集理论 平稳分布 

分 类 号：TV213.9[水利工程—水文学及水资源]