菏泽市紫外线辐射变化特征及月预报方程  

Variation Characteristics of Ultraviolet Radiation and the Monthly Forecast Equation in Heze

作　　者：孙翠凤 窦坤 程德海 李瑛 吴雷柱 

机构地区：[1]山东省菏泽市气象局,山东菏泽274000 [2]山东省菏泽市环保局,山东菏泽274000

出　　处：《干旱气象》2014年第4期677-682,共6页Journal of Arid Meteorology

基　　金：中央财政"三农"气象服务专项;菏泽市气象局科研项目"紫外线辐射变化特征及月际预报方法的研究(2014002)"共同资助

摘　　要：利用2008年4月至2012年12月菏泽市紫外线观测资料以及地面常规气象观测资料和空气质量资料，分析了该地区太阳紫外线辐射的变化特征及其与各因子的相关关系，并建立逐月预报方程。结果表明：菏泽紫外线辐射年总量达到187．98 W/m2，春夏两季明显高于秋冬两季，5月达到全年的最大值，1月为全年的最小值；3～9月紫外线辐射极大值均可达到5级，其他月份均可达到4级。不同天气条件下紫外线辐射强度存在明显差异，其中晴天紫外线辐射强且稳定，呈抛物线变化；多云天紫外线辐射波动较大，时强时弱；阴天紫外线辐射相对较弱。紫外线辐射强度与风速、能见度、气温呈正相关，与总云量、低云量、相对湿度呈负相关，与SO2、PM10、NO2、PM2．5多呈负相关。基于多元线性回归分析向后剔除变量方法得出的逐月预报方程，经检验总体预报效果较好，对当地紫外线等级预报工作具有参考意义。Based on radiation intensity of ultraviolet （UV）observation data,conventional observation data from weather station and air quality data in Heze from April 2008 to December 2012,the variation characteristics of UV radiation and their relationship with meter-ological factors were analyzed,firstly.Then,the monthly forecast equation was established by using multiple regression method.The results showed that the annual total of UV radiation intensity in Heze was 187.98 W/m2,the quantity in spring and summer was higher than that in autumn and winter,and the maximum appeared in May,while the minimum occurred in January.The maximum values of UV radiation intensity from March to September reached at the level of 5 -grade,while it reached at the level of 4 -grade for other months.The intensity of UV radiation displayed obvious difference in different weathers.The intensity of UV radiation was strong and stable in sunny day,while it was relatively weak in rainy day,and the fluctuation of UV radiation in cloudy day was more obvious than that in rainy day.The UV radiation intensity had a positive correlation with wind velocity,visibility and air temperature,but negative correlation with total cloud cover,low cloud cover,relative humidity,SO2 ,PM10 ,NO2 and PM2.5 .The monthly forecast equation es-tablished by using multiple regression analysis had better effects on UV radiation prediction in the whole,and they were useful for fore-casting UV radiation.

关 键 词：紫外线辐射 变化特征 相关分析 预报方程 

分 类 号：P422.62[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]