城市经济承载力定量化方法探讨——以大连市为例  

City Economy Capacity Study on Quantitative Method——A Case Study of Dlian City

作　　者：韩帅帅[1] 狄乾斌[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽宁师范大学海洋经济与可持续发展研究中心,辽宁大连116029

出　　处：《国土与自然资源研究》2014年第4期32-35,共4页Territory & Natural Resources Study

摘　　要：经济承载力正逐渐成为制约城市发展的根本因素。用经济总量定义城市经济承载力,基于Eviews6.0软件,运用单位根检验、协整检验、自相关检验以及异方差检验来确定大连市1990～2012年土地指标的可靠性;利用多元回归和二元二次方回归分析拟合方程,运用土地边际报酬递减规律,测算出大连市国内生产总值的上限值为23986.1956亿元,并对此模型方法的优劣性进行了探讨。Economic carrying capacity is gradually becoming the fundamental factors restricting the development of the city. With the economic definition of city economic carrying capacity, based on the Eviews6.0 software, the use of unit root test, EG test, LM test and variance test to determine reliability of Dalian City 1990- 2012 land index; using multiple regression and quadric equation in two variables, the use of the land law of diminishing marginal returns, calculate the Dalian GDP of the upper limit is ￥2398.61956 billions, and the pros and cons of model methods were discussed.

关 键 词：经济承载力 GDP EVIEWS 多元回归 大连市 

分 类 号：K902[历史地理—人文地理学]