尾矿库隐患及风险演化系统动力学模拟与仿真  

Dynamic modeling and simulation of hazard and risk evolution for mine tailing ponds

作　　者：赵怡晴[1,2] 覃璇[1,2] 李仲学[1,2] 唐良勇[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]北京科技大学教育部金属矿山高效开采与安全重点实验室,北京100083 [2]北京科技大学土木与环境工程学院,北京100083

出　　处：《北京科技大学学报》2014年第9期1158-1165,共8页Journal of University of Science and Technology Beijing

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(FRF-TP-12-013A);国家自然科学基金资助项目(51174260)

摘　　要：针对矿山尾矿库危害问题,构建了尾矿库事故隐患关联的复杂网络,给出了尾矿库隐患状态及风险演化的系统动力学模型,并结合矿山尾矿库案例进行了应用分析.结果表明,通过隐患关联的复杂网络法、隐患转移的三态法以及风险演化的系统动力学模型的巧妙结合,能够明确地表征尾矿库事故隐患及风险演化规律,包括隐患作用关系、递演途径、风险程度等.成果应用于临钢980沟尾矿库,仿真结果与980沟尾矿库事故发展规律的实际情况吻合较好,说明所建模型可有效表征尾矿库溃坝事故演化的时空规律和风险程度,预测危险的发生.To prevent the accidents of mine tailing ponds, a complex network of relevance between accidents and associated hazards was established and a system dynamics （SD） model of hazard states and risk evolution was illustrated for mine tailing ponds. The complex network and SD model were combined and applied in a case study. The results demonstrate that the hazard and risk evolu-tion rule of mine tailing ponds can be precisely characterized by an ingenious combination of the complex network, tri-state method, and SD model. The key findings include hazard action relations, evolution pathways, risks levels, etc. By means of a case study on the Linsteel 980 Ditch tailing pond, the simulation results coincide with the actual development of accidents and also effectively demon-strate the accident evolution diversifications of mine tailing ponds in time and space as well as the risk level, so the model can be used to predict the occurrence of risks.

关 键 词：矿山尾矿 事故预防 风险分析 动力学模拟 仿真 复杂网络 

分 类 号：TD77[矿业工程—矿井通风与安全]