基于灰色系统的中国沿海城市旅游业发展趋势分析及预测  

The Analysis of the Tourism's Developing Trend of the Coastal Cities in China Based on the Grey Prediction

作　　者：王鑫[1] 刘桂芳[2] 郭伟[2] 

机构地区：[1]对外经贸大学金融学院,北京100029 [2]对外经贸大学统计学院,北京100029

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2014年第17期92-98,共7页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

摘　　要：首先以53个沿海城市为区域研究对象,通过引入旅游发展指数来衡量单一城市的旅游发展的绝对趋势,同时通过计算该指数的变异系数分析城市之间旅游业发展的相对差异程度,得出结论:目前为止中国沿海城市之间旅游业发展仍存在差异,但是这种差异正在逐渐缩小.接下来建立灰色预测模型进一步分析相对差异的变化趋势,通过计算发现在2032年左右,53个沿海城市的旅游业发展程度趋同.还对所建模型进行精度分析,模型误差较小,能够合理预测.最后针对建模得出的结论给出合理的建议及对策.Initially, we describe the tourism＇s absolute developing trend of a single city by introducing an indicator called tourism development index calculated based on the data of 53 coastal cities in China. Meanwhile, we calculate the coefficients of variation of the above index to analyze the relative developing difference between the tourism development of these cities, drawing the conclusion that there still exists relative difference in tourism development of the 53 cities so far, but the difference tends to go slighter. Then by the means of further establishing a GM（1.1） model to forecast the trend, we get that about in 2032, the relative difference between the 53 coastal cities tends to be zero. In addition, we make an accuracy analysis to justify our model, which shows that the model can give us a relatively accurate forecast. Finally, we come up with some legitimate suggestions for tourism development based on the above study.

关 键 词：旅游发展指数 变异系数 发展趋势 灰色预测模型 

分 类 号：F592[经济管理—旅游管理] N941.5[经济管理—产业经济]