基于同志网站利用捕获-再捕获法对重庆市男男性接触者人群规模估计的研究  

Estimation of the population size of men who have sex with men by capture-recapture method based on gay websites in Chongqing

作　　者：吴艾琳 张维[2] 吴国辉[2] 许濒月[2] 周超[2] 欧阳琳[2] 周颖[2] 郭巍[3] 

机构地区：[1]山西医科大学公共卫生学院预防医学系,山西太原030001 [2]重庆市疾病预防控制中心 [3]中国疾病预防控制中心性病艾滋病预防控制中心

出　　处：《中国预防医学杂志》2014年第5期454-456,共3页Chinese Preventive Medicine

基　　金：中国全球基金艾滋病项目(CHN-304-G03-H);美国疾病预防控制中心全球艾滋病项目(3U2GPS001188);中国疾病预防控制中心青年科研基金(2011A104)

摘　　要：目的基于同志网站利用捕获-再捕获法估计重庆市男男性接触者（men who have sex with men,MSM）人群规模,为艾滋病防治工作提供科学依据。方法选用重庆市点击率最高的一家MSM网站进行在线网络问卷调查作为第一次捕获,第二次捕获采用分类滚雪球的抽样方法进行横断面调查,对2012年重庆市MSM人群规模进行估计。结果第一次捕获期共收集问卷1 974份,根据独立IP地址判断1 676名有效调查对象;第二次捕获由34个初始种子进行同伴推荐,实际符合调查纳入条件的调查对象553人,其中有54人在网络上填写了网络调查问卷。利用捕获-再捕获法估计2012年重庆市MSM人群规模约为17000人（95%CI：13 000~21 000人）。结论基于同志网站利用捕获-再捕获法能简便高效地估计活跃的MSM人群规模,但仍需采用多种估计方法对MSM人群的规模进行更准确的估计。Objective To estimate the population size of men who have sex with men（MSM）by capture-recapture method based on gay websites in Chongqing,so as to provide scientific evidence for AIDS prevention and control. Methods A MSM website with the heaviest hit was selected to initially capture subjects by online survey.Then a classified snowball sampling method was used to estimate the population size of MSM by crosssectional survey. Results A total of 1 974 online questionnaires were collected and only 1 676 were considered as qualified based on independent IP address for the first capture.The second cross-sectional capture started with 34 seeds and eventually 553 individuals were qualified for the study in which 54 had completed the online survey.It was estimated based on capture-recapture data that the population size of MSM could reach up to17 000（95%CI：13 000-21 000）in 2012 in Chongqing. Conclusions Capture and recapture method based on gay websites is able to simply estimate active MSM population size.However,more methods need to be combined for an accurate estimation.

关 键 词：捕获-再捕获法 男男性行为者 人群规模估计 

分 类 号：R512.91[医药卫生—内科学]