中国进出口贸易隐含能源消耗的测算与分解——基于投入产出模型的分析  

Embodied Energy in International Trade of China:Calculation and Decomposition

作　　者：谢建国[1,2] 姜珮珊 

机构地区：[1]南京大学国际经济贸易系 [2]南京大学国际经济研究所

出　　处：《经济学（季刊）》2014年第3期1365-1392,共28页China Economic Quarterly

基　　金：国家社科基金项目(08CJY063);教育部人文社会科学研究基金项目(09YJA790102)阶段性成果;教育部"新世纪优秀人才支持计划";江苏省"333工程"计划项目的资助

摘　　要：本文在一个能源投入产出模型的基础上,采用1995年、2000年和2005年的OECD中国投入产出表和中国的能源消耗数据,测算了中国分行业的进口能源消耗、出口能源消耗、贸易净能源消耗和基于能耗的贸易条件。文章结果表明:1995年以来,中国的能源消耗效率不断提高,但是出口产品总能耗量大于进口产品总能耗量,贸易净能源消耗有增加的趋势,中国仍然是一个能源的净出口国,而且,基于能耗的贸易条件有恶化的趋势;进一步的分析表明,出口规模的扩张是中国出口隐含能源消耗增长的主要原因,行业投入效应也促进了出口隐含能的增加,但影响较小,而出口结构的优化与单位价值能源消耗的下降则抑制了出口能源消耗的增加,整体分析结果表明,中国的出口产品结构在转向低能耗参与。Based on an energy input-output model, this paper evaluates energy embodied in exports, energy embodied in imports, the net energy embodied in trade and terms of trade based on energy consumption in 1995, 2000, 2005 and 2010, by using OECD 1995, 2000 and 2005 China input-output tables and energy consumption data of China. Results show that China＇s energy consumption efficiency is continuously improved. Meanwhile, Energy embodied in China＇s export is more than energy embodied in China＇s import, which means that China is a net exporter of embodied energy, and the net energy embodied in trade has been rising. Results also show that intensity of energy embodied in export is greater than that in import. There is a deteriorating trend in terms of trade based on energy consumption of China. Structural decomposition results show that expanding export scale is the major driving force of the increase of the energy embodied in export, but it is significantly offset by the effect of energy efficiency. The effect of industrial input has a little influence on increasing energy embodied in export, while the structural change of export has a little influence on decreasing energy embodied in export. The structure of China＇s export has a tendency to be low energy consumption.

关 键 词：投入产出分析 隐含能 能源消耗 

分 类 号：F752.6[经济管理—国际贸易]