基于云模型的复杂仿真系统可信度评估方法  

Method for Complex Simulation System Credibility Evaluation Based on Cloudy Model

作　　者：王玉珏 杨继坤[2] 卢道伟[3] 刘潇 

机构地区：[1]海军航空兵学院教研部实验中心 [2]92493部队 [3]92941部队93分队 [4]辽宁边防总队海警一支队三大队

出　　处：《舰船电子工程》2014年第9期86-91,共6页Ship Electronic Engineering

摘　　要：阐述了复杂仿真系统可信度评估的迫切性,并以此为需求牵引,结合VV&A的思想给出了可信度评估的基本流程,构建了以可用性、正确性、互操作性和有效性为高层指标的可信度评价指标体系。分析了云模型及其数字特性,提出了基于云模型的可信度评估方法,通过定性和定量VV&A结果云化,指标权重云模型构建和综合评估等步骤,有效地解决了可信度评估结果的量化问题。通过实例分析,验证了模型和算法的有效性,与传统方法相比,该方法更加可信、高效,为复杂仿真系统可信度研究提供了一条新的思路。Urgency of credibility evaluation of complex simulation system was proposed. Combined with the idea of VV＆A（Verification, Validation, Accreditation）, the basic evaluation process of credibility was given. And the credibility e- valuation index system was established, which included high-level index about availability, accuracy, interoperability and ef- fectiveness of simulation system. By analyzing the numbers characteristics of cloudy model, method for complex simulation system credibility evaluation based on cloudy model was put forward. This method can effectively solve the problem of quan- tifying the credibility evaluation results through certain steps, which included clouding of qualitative and quantitative VV＆A results, building the index cloudy model, comprehensive assessment. Finally, its effectiveness was verified through example. The results of the experiment show that this method is more credible and efficient compared with the traditional credibility evaluation method, and provided a new idea for the credibility research of complex simulation system.

关 键 词：可信度 云模型 仿真系统 评估 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]