我国冬季天然气日负荷的温度梯度分析  

Analysis on Temperature Gradient of Natural-gas Daily Load in the Winter

作　　者：陈进殿[1] 张津铭[2] 魏传博[1] 郝迎鹏[1] 沈鑫[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油天然气股份有限公司规划总院,北京100083 [2]中国石油天然气股份有限公司天然气与管道分公司,北京100101

出　　处：《天然气技术与经济》2014年第4期64-66,80,共3页Natural Gas Technology and Economy

摘　　要：气温变化是影响冬季天然气用气负荷的重要因素之一。基于环渤海、长三角以及中南地区冬季气象和天然气日负荷数据,采用选取相似日的方法,对各省市天然气负荷温度梯度进行了总体和分段线性回归分析。研究认为:总体上气温与天然气负荷呈负相关关系;天然气日负荷的温度梯度在不同地区、不同温度节点处差别较大,应高度关注日负荷温度梯度较大省市的调峰问题;分析天然气的日负荷温度梯度时应考虑气温滞后效应的影响。Temperature change is one of the most important factors affecting natural-gas daily load in the winter. Based on the data from winter weather and natural-gas daily load in Bohai Bay region,Yangtze River Delta, and Central and Southern China region, we used the method of choosing similar days to analyze the temperature gradient of natural-gas load generally and separately in each province by linear regression. Results show that(1) there is generally a negative correlation between temperature and gas load;(2) temperature gradient in different places or temperature nodes has obvious disparity, resulting in highly concerning about the relevant peak-shaving problems of the provinces and cities with higher temperature gradient; and(3) the effect of temperature hysteresis should be taken into consideration while analyzing the temperature gradient of natural-gas daily load.

关 键 词：气温变化 天然气负荷 回归分析 负荷温度梯度 

分 类 号：TU996[建筑科学—供热、供燃气、通风及空调工程]