南京市近53年气温和降水量特征分析  

Variation Analysis of Annual Mean Temperature and Precipitation Near 53 Years in Nanjing City

作　　者：邓山[1] 陆晓明[2] 陆宝宏[1,3] 张翰文 赵超[1] 徐琨[1] 毛豆 崔冬梅[1] 吴星鑫 

机构地区：[1]河海大学水文水资源学院,江苏南京210098 [2]江苏省水文水资源勘测局,江苏南京210029 [3]河海大学水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,江苏南京210098

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第8期14-17,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(50979023);水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201201026)

摘　　要：基于南京站1960-2012年月平均气温和月降水量资料,利用滑动平均、小波分解、Mann-Kendall检验、Mexican Hat小波变换和R/S分析,对年平均气温和年降水量进行趋势分析、突变检验、周期分析,并对其变化趋势做了预测。结果表明,南京市近53年年平均气温有明显上升趋势（显著性水平α=0.01）,在1996年左右发生突变,年平均气温存在16年的主周期,未来一段时间内气温将呈上升趋势;南京市近53年年降水量有增加趋势但不显著,近53年未发生突变,年降水量存在2年和18年的周期,未来一段时间内年降水量将呈增加趋势。Based on the temperature and precipitation data from 1960 to 2012 in Nanjing City, moving-average method, wavelet decomposition, Mann-Kendall test, Mexican Hat wavelet analysis and R/S analysis were used to analyze the trend, catastrophe point, periodicity characteristics, and forecast the changing trend of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation. The results show that annual mean temperature has significantly upward trend at the 0.01 significance level; 1996 was the catastrophe point, it had a main periodicity of 16 years, and temperature will increase in the future; while annual precipitation appears upward trend but not significant near 53 years in Nanjing City; there was no catastrophe point, it had main periodicity of 2 and 18 years; and the precipitation will increase in the future.

关 键 词：气温 降水量 趋势 突变点 周期 预测 南京市 

分 类 号：TV21[水利工程—水文学及水资源] P332.1[天文地球—水文科学]