基于CGE模型的火电价格波动对我国经济的影响分析  

Impact of Price Fluctuation of Thermal Power on China's Economy Based on CGE Mode

作　　者：高志远[1] 王立杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学(北京)管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2014年第8期186-188,71,共4页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金项目(2010YG02);2014年博士生拔尖创新人才项目(800015Z672)

摘　　要：电力价格改革是我国电力市场体制改革的重要组成部分,而火电占我国电力构成的70%以上,因此研究火电价格波动对我国经济的影响具有非常重要的意义。基于我国2010年投入产出表构建了21个部门的SAM表,并利用CGE模型对我国火电价格波动对经济的影响进行了研究,对不同的火电价格冲击进行情景模拟及分析。结果表明,火电价格波动对经济、居民福利和各个产业的产出、价格有不同程度的影响,并据此提供了政策建议。Electricity price reform is an important problem and part of electricity market reform in China. However, the thermal power constitutes more than 70% of electric power in China. Therefore, analyzing the impact of thermal power price fluctuation on Chinese economy has very important significance. Based on input-output table in 2010, the SAM table of 21 department is established. And then, the CGE model is used to study the influence of price fluctuations of thermal power on the economy. Finally, different thermal power price impact is scenario simulated. The results indicate that coal price fluctuations on the economy, the residents＇ welfare and the output of each industry, the price have different degrees of influence. So, some policies have been put forward.

关 键 词：火电价格 CGE 经济 居民福利 产业 

分 类 号：TM73[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]