六盘水市水资源安全系统动力学模拟研究  

Simulating Dynamics of Water Resources Safety in Liupanshui City

作　　者：代稳[1,2] 王金凤[1] 秦趣[1] 仝双梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]六盘水师范学院,贵州六盘水553004 [2]乌蒙山区发展研究院,贵州六盘水553004

出　　处：《湖北农业科学》2014年第15期3692-3696,共5页Hubei Agricultural Sciences

基　　金：贵州省哲学社会科学规划课题(13GZYB27);贵州省科学技术基金项目[黔科合J字(2012)2308号];六盘水师范学院自然科学科研计划青年项目(lpssy201113)

摘　　要：利用系统动力学方法构建六盘水市水资源安全系统动力学模型,选取人口增产率、工业产值增加率、工业用水重复利用率、工业万元产值取水量、城市化率、农村人均日用水量、城市人均日用水量、污水处理率、污水回用率、农田灌溉定额、可利用水资源量等作为六盘水市水资源安全的衡量指标,在变换指标值形成的12个策略方案下,模拟2008-2030年六盘水市水资源安全的动态变化,寻求保证六盘水市水资源安全的方法,为决策者提供科学的决策依据。Water security system in Liupanshui City was constructed by using system dynamics method. The population increase rate, growth rate of industrial output, industrial water recycling rate, industrial water consumption per 10 000 yuan output value, urbanization, rural per capita daily water consumption, urban per capita daily water consumption, sewage treatment rate, wastewater reuse rate, irrigation quota, the amount of available water resources were selected as measurement index of water security. The water security of Liupanshui was improved based on simulating the dynamic changes of water security under twelve various schemes from 2008 to 2030. The study will provide a scientific basis for decision making.

关 键 词：水资源安全 系统动力学 模拟 六盘水市 

分 类 号：TV213.4[水利工程—水文学及水资源]