郑州市1951—2011年降水及气温的变化特征分析  

Variation Characteristics Analysis of Temperature and Precipitation in Zhengzhou City from 1951 to 2011

作　　者：张丽[1] 胡娟萍[1] 李宝玉 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450045 [2]河南水利与环境职业学院,河南郑州450011

出　　处：《华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第3期19-23,48,共6页Journal of North China University of Water Resources and Electric Power：Natural Science Edition

基　　金："十二五"国家科技支撑计划(2012BAB02B04)

摘　　要：为了解郑州市近年来气温和降水的变化特征,利用1951—2011年气温和降水资料,采用线性倾向估计、5 a滑动平均趋势分析法、累积距平法、Mann-Kendall突变检测法、滑动t-检验和小波分析法,对郑州市气温和降水的变化趋势、相关性、突变性及周期性进行了分析.结果表明:61年来,郑州市气温和年降水总体均呈上升趋势,气温倾向率为0.258℃/(10 a),降水倾向率为2.77 mm/(10 a);春季、夏季的降水与气温的相关性较好;郑州市年均降水在1953年发生突变;年均气温在1993年和1997年发生2次突变;通过小波分析,年降水和年均气温在主周期方面有一定程度的吻合.To understand the variation of temperature and precipitation in Zhengzhou City in recent years,basing on the annual temperature and precipitation data from 1951 to 2011,using linear trend estimates,five-year moving average trend analysis,the cumulative anomaly method,Mann-Kendall mutation method,sliding t-test and wavelet analysis method,the variation trends,relevance,mutability and periodic of the temperature and precipitation in Zhengzhou City are analyzed. The results show that the overall temperature and annual precipitation have an increasing trend in 61 years,and the temperature trend rate is 0. 258 ℃ /10 a,the precipitation trend rate is2. 77 mm /10 a; the correlation between precipitation and temperature in spring and summer is better; the annual precipitation mutation takes place in 1953; the annual average temperature mutation occurs twice in 1993 and 1997; by wavelet analysis,the annual precipitation and annual average temperature have a certain degree of match in the main cycle.

关 键 词：变化特征 气温 降水 累积距平 MANN-KENDALL 滑动t-检验 小波分析 

分 类 号：TV125[水利工程—水文学及水资源]