建筑供应链风险模糊故障树评估  

Risk assessment of construction supply chain based on fuzzy fault tree

作　　者：李美云[1] 宋乔[2] 

机构地区：[1]河南工业大学土木建筑学院,河南郑州450001 [2]河南建筑职业技术学院土木工程系,河南郑州450064

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2014年第7期927-931,共5页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家十一五科技支撑计划基金资助项目(2006BAJ13B04)

摘　　要：为科学地对建筑供应链的风险进行评估,采用故障树分析方法,对引起建筑供应链失效的各风险因素进行分析,建立了建筑供应链失效的故障树.在对故障树进行定性分析的基础上,找出了建筑供应链失效的主要模式.采用信心指数法,将专家数据修正为三角模糊数,运用模糊集理论和故障树相结合,计算了底事件发生概率及各事件的模糊概率重要度.通过分析模糊概率重要度指标,得出了建筑供应链在实施前应首先规避的风险.结果表明:为建筑供应链的风险评估提供了可靠手段.In order to assess scientifically the risk of construction supply chain, this paper analyzed the various risk factors that cause the failure of construction supply chain using the fault tree analysis. The fault tree of construction supply chain was established. On the base of the qualitative analysis, the control measure was proposed to reduce the risk of failure of the construction supply chain. The data of experts were modified to triangular fuzzy numbers using confidence index, then the probability of occurrence and fuzzy probability importance of each risk were calculated with combination of fuzzy and Fault Tree. Through the analysis of the fuzzy probability importance, the risk that should be avoided primarily before the construction can be obtained. The proposed method provides a scientific and reliable means for the risk assessment of construction supply chain.

关 键 词：建筑供应链 风险评估 模糊故障树 模糊概率重要度 失效风险 

分 类 号：TU12[建筑科学—建筑理论]