基于负荷特性分析的中长期负荷预测主导因素辨识法  

The dominant identification factor method for mid-long term load forecasting based on load characteristic analysis

作　　者：吴海波[1] 姚建刚[1] 韦亦龙 

机构地区：[1]湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙410082

出　　处：《电力需求侧管理》2014年第5期10-15,共6页Power Demand Side Management

摘　　要：对于电力系统而言,精确的负荷特性分析有助于准确地把握负荷曲线的变化规律,提高预测结果的精度。根据地区电网历史负荷数据和相关资料,深入分析了各负荷特性指标与影响因素的关联性,提出了基于负荷特性分析的中长期负荷预测主导因素辨识法。采用Pearson相关分析的基本原理,该方法能有效挖掘出真正对负荷曲线形状产生影响的因素,并结合偏最小二乘回归法应用于负荷预测建模。通过算例对比分析,验证了此方法实用、有效。In terms of the power system, precise analysis of the load charaete,＇istie helps to grasp the change rule of load curve and improve the accuracy of predicted results. According to the historical load data and related information in an area, the relation- ship between load characteristic index and influence factor was analyzed in this paper, and then the identify dominant factor method for mid-long term load foreeast~.ng based on load eimraeteristic analysis was proposed. By using Pearson correlation analysis, the method can effectively dig nut the factors that affect load curve shape. Combined with the partial least squares regression, the method was always applied to mid- long term load forecasting, which had been proved to be effective anti available.

关 键 词：负荷特性分析 主导因素辨识 相关性分析 

分 类 号：TM715[电气工程—电力系统及自动化] F407.61[经济管理—产业经济]