森林火灾风险对林业经济发展的影响研究  

Study on Forest Fire Risk Impact on Forestry Economic Development

作　　者：周雪[1] 张颖[1] 

机构地区：[1]北京林业大学经济管理学院,北京100083

出　　处：《资源开发与市场》2014年第10期1198-1202,共5页Resource Development & Market

基　　金：国家林业局林业公益性行业科研专项经费课题项目(编号:200904003);教育部人文社会科学研究规划基金项目(编号:09YJA910001)

摘　　要：森林火灾是森林资源面临的最主要风险源,对林业产业的影响值得认真探讨。研究尝试用方差贡献率作为衡量贡献率的因子,运用因子分析法结合平均值法得到林业三次产业对总产值的贡献率分别为0.4831、0.4431、0.0738。依据灰色关联分析法的相对性和非对称性进行横向、纵向二维排序,通过两项得分对反向关联度进行综合得分排名,并对林业各次产业的增长率波动进行分析,这对林业经济发展和管理具有重要意义。Forest fire was the main risk source of the forest resources, which was the material basis of sustainable development of the forestry. How the forest fire effected on the forestry industry was an issue worth studying carefully. This paper attempted to use factor analysis method combined with the average method to study this issue, the results showed that the three contribution rates of forestry industry output value were 0.4831,0.4431, 0.0738. This paper sorted the relational degree of them from the point of view of the horizontal and vertical, according to the relativity and asymmetry of grey relational analysis, also sorted the inverse relational degree comprehensively through two score and got the results, as well as analyzed the fluctuation of forestry industry growth rate. It had important significance for forestry economic development and management.

关 键 词：森林火灾 林业经济 贡献率 灰色关联分析 

分 类 号：F326.24[经济管理—产业经济]