中国碳排放变动趋势及其影响因素——基于(进口)非竞争型投入产出表的分析  

China's Carbon Emission Trend and Its Influential Factors:An Analysis Based on Non-competitive( Import) Input-output Tables

作　　者：庄宗明[1] 卫瑞[1] 

机构地区：[1]厦门大学经济学院,福建厦门361005

出　　处：《厦门大学学报（哲学社会科学版）》2014年第5期107-116,共10页Journal of Xiamen University(A Bimonthly for Studies in Arts & Social Sciences)

摘　　要：中国经济的可持续发展和国际减排压力要求必须发展低碳经济。基于世界投入产出数据库提供的中国(进口)非竞争型投入产出表,通过结构分解考察10种因素对中国1995—2009年碳排放增长的影响,结果表明:1995—2009年我国碳排放出现大幅增长,从2721.51百万吨(Mt)CO2增至6213.38Mt CO2。在国内影响因素方面,能源密集型部门的碳排放强度下降在整个研究期间对碳减排的贡献最大,而国内最终需求规模扩张对碳排放增加的贡献最大,其他因素的影响相对较小。在贸易方面,加入世贸组织后中国出口规模的扩张大幅增加了中国的碳排放,而出口结构、中间产品和最终产品进口替代效应的影响较小。Sustainable development of China's economy and international pressure for carbon reduction require every country to develop low-carbon economy. Based on China's non-competitive( import) input-output tables from the World Input-output Data Bank,this paper uses the method of Structural Decomposition Analysis to investigate 10 factors for the 1995-2009 carbon emission increase in China. The results reveal that during this period there was a huge increase in China's carbon emission,from 2721. 51 Mt to 6213. 38 Mt. Among the domestic factors,the reduction of carbon emission in the energy-intensive sectors proved the most contributing to China's task of carbon emission reduction,while the main cause of increase in China's carbon emission was the expansion of the scope of ultimate demands. The other factors were found to be generally insignificant. As for international trade,China's export expansion increased its carbon emission dramatically after entering the WTO,while the effects of export structure,import substitution of intermediate and final products are relatively insignificant.

关 键 词：国际贸易 低碳经济 碳排放 非竞争型投入产出表 结构分解分析 

分 类 号：F124.5[经济管理—世界经济]