区域农田畜禽承载量预测模型构建与应用:以赤峰市为例  

Development and Application of Model for Prediction of Regional Farmland Livestock and Poultry Carrying Capacity:A Case Study of Chifeng City

作　　者：张怀志[1] 李全新[1] 岳现录[1] 冀宏杰[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业科学院农业资源与农业区划研究所,北京100081

出　　处：《生态与农村环境学报》2014年第5期576-580,共5页Journal of Ecology and Rural Environment

基　　金：国家科技基础性工作专项(2012FY112100)

摘　　要：为对区域现有生猪养殖数量的合理性进行评价及对生猪养殖承载量进行预测,从畜禽养殖-耕地-作物系统出发,基于农田养分平衡理论及有机和无机肥合理配施方法,构建区域农田畜禽承载量预测模型。以赤峰市为例,设定有机和无机肥配施比例为5∶5,并保持现有农田N或P2O5养分盈余量不变,分别基于N和P2O5养分盈余量不变实地应用该模型。结果表明,基于N时可新增生猪养殖数量43.6万头,承载量为630.8万头;基于P2O5时可新增生猪养殖数量369.3万头,承载量为1 041.3万头。位于西拉木伦河南岸的松山区、翁牛特旗、喀喇沁旗、宁城县和敖汉旗是可新增生猪养殖的主要区域。从环境压力角度考虑,推荐基于N的预测值作为计算赤峰市可新增生猪养殖量和承载量的依据。Based on the Breeding-Farmland-Crops system,a regional farmland livestock and poultry carrying capacity model was developed by integrating the theory of field nutrient balance and reasonable combined application of organic manure and inorganic fertilizers. The model was used to evaluate rationality of the number of pigs currently kept in the pens of the region and to predict pig carrying capacity of the region. A case study was performed of Chifeng City,assuming that the ratio of organic manure and inorganic fertilizer in combined fertilization was 5∶ 5,and that the fertilization kept surplus of N and P2O5 nutrients unchanged in the farmlands now under cultivation. On such as basis,the model was tested. The results show that if based on N balance,the number of pigs in pen could be increased by 0. 436 million and the regional pig carrying capacity up to 6. 308 million pigs and if based on P2O5 balance,the number of pigs in pen could be increased by 3. 693 millions and the regional pig carrying capacity up to 10. 413 million pigs. Songshan,Wengniute,Kalaqin,Ningcheng and Aohan on the south bank of the Xilamulun River are the major areas that have the potential to increase the number of pigs in pen. In consideration of the pressure from the environment,the N-based prediction can be recommended as the basis for calculation of potential increment in the number of pigs in pen and pig carrying capacity of Chifeng City.

关 键 词：农田养分平衡 有机无机肥配施 畜禽承载量 模型 

分 类 号：X321[环境科学与工程—环境工程]