一次台风倒槽暴雨的GPS同化试验  

A case study of assimilating GPS sounding profiles in a typhoon inverted trough rainstorm

作　　者：张钊扬 钱贞成[1] 岳甫璐[1] 张晓辉[1] 周芦燕[1] 

机构地区：[1]解放军理工大学气象海洋学院,南京211101

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2014年第3期247-254,共8页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(41275113)

摘　　要：选取2012年8月9—10日江苏东北部地区一次台风倒槽特大暴雨天气过程,利用WRF中尺度模式进行数值模拟,在此基础上进行常规观测资料、GPS探空廓线资料的三维变分同化试验,并对试验结果进行对比分析。为了更客观地检验不同方案的模拟效果,对降水采用TS评分检验和预报偏差分析。结果表明:单独同化常规观测数据可以改善降水的落区;GPS探空廓线数据水平分辨率低,仅同化GPS探空廓线数据并不能有效改善模拟效果;同时同化常规观测资料和GPS探空廓线数据可以有效弥补常规数据精度不高、GPS数据水平分辨率低的缺点,无论是对降水的落区还是强度都有很好的改善。A typhoon inverted trough rainstorm on August 9 to 10, 2012 in northeast Jiangsu is studied in this paper. The WRF mesoscale model is used for the numerical simulation of this storm. GTS observation data and GPS sounding profiles are assimilated in the initial field to run three groups of three-dimensional variational data assimilation experiments. Detailed analysis was carried out to the simulated data. To objectively analyze the impact of assimilating these data on precipitation in the experiments,TS score and the precipitation forecast deviations were analyzed. The results showed that(1) assimilation of GTS observational data can improve the precipitation area,(2) the GPS sounding profile assimilation does not effectively improve the simulation results, and(3) assimilating the above two kind of data can effectively improve the forecast of precipitation area and intensity.

关 键 词：台风倒槽 三维变分同化 GPS探空廓线 TS评分 

分 类 号：P458.121.1[天文地球—大气科学及气象学] P435