基于DID模型的洱海流域生态农业政策效应研究  

Research on The Policy Effects of Ecological Agriculture in Erhai Basin by DID Model

作　　者：曹洪华[1,2] 王荣成[1] 李琳[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北师范大学地理科学学院,吉林长春130024 [2]云南师范大学旅游与地理科学学院,云南昆明650092

出　　处：《中国人口·资源与环境》2014年第10期157-162,共6页China Population,Resources and Environment

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目"云南环洱海地区乡村聚落空间演变机理与优化研究"(编号:41261044);"基于坡度约束CA模型的高原城镇坝区蔓延驱动力与管控机制研究"(编号:D010203);教育部人文社科研究项目"基于精明增长的高原城镇用地蔓延驱动机制与管控政策研究"(编号:13XJC790001);云南省哲社基金项目"生态文明导向下洱海流域产业结构对水环境的响应机制研究"(编号:YB2013122)

摘　　要：生态文明建设下,探讨高原湖泊流域的生态-经济协调发展具有现实意义。实践表明,生态环境政策对工业与服务业等点源污染的管控效果显著,但对农业面源污染的针对性、实效性和可操作性存在瓶颈。因此,本文运用DID模型,对洱海流域内政策区和非政策区农业生产方式与水环境指标进行双重差分分析,揭示生态农业政策效应。分析结果显示:政策实施下农业生产方式对水环境污染指数的影响效应为-12.59,生态农业政策对农业生产方式调整与优化效应显著,其中农业从业人口、肉蛋奶总产量变量对水质污染指数负相关;化肥施用量、农药施用量与水质污染指数正相关。分析结论:生态农业政策实施后,农业生产方式的优化对流域内面源污染程度得到缓解,农业产值稳步提升,但与"北三江"5乡镇比较,环湖8乡镇农户绿色生产观念、无公害农业种植技术、养殖业循环发展与林下经济等四方面生态化趋势更显著,政策响应更积极。政策建议:"养殖+沼气循环农业"是降低入湖水质富氧化,提升养殖集约化发展的首要措施;"测土配方+平衡施肥"可在兼顾单位产量的同时,约束过度施肥,减少农业面源污染,实现有机无害农产品种植的重要路径;退耕还林还湖,发展林下经济,能够优化农业生产结构,培育特色林业经济;扩大非农产业对农村剩余劳动力的吸纳,也是缓解农业面源污染,促进农民增收的必要措施。Under the development of ecological civilization, the study of ecological-and-economic coordinated development of lake areas on the plateau bears its own significance. Practical experiences reveal that ecological environment policies play an effective role in pollution regulation on industrial sector and service sector but facing difficulties on agricultural sector due to its pertinence, effectiveness and maneuverability. Thus, this paper, by using DID model, conducts double difference analysis on agricultural production mode and hydro-environment of policy area and non-policy area within the Er Lake Area and attempts to explore the effect of ecological agricultural policy. The analysis indicates that： the index of influential effect of agricultural production mode on water pollution is -12. 59, and ecological agriculture policy has effective effect on adaption and optimization of agricultural production mode, in which labor population of agricultural sector and total output of diary and meat product is negatively correlated with water pollution index. The analysis concludes that： after the complementation of ecological agriculture policy, the improvement of agricultural production mode has eased non-point source pollution of the lake area,and agricultural output has plunged. However,compared with the five towns of ＇Bei San He＇ , eight around-the-lake towns show better ecological trend on green production concept, non-pollution farming technology, recyclable aquaculture development and forest economy. The policy proposes are that ： ＇ aquaculture and recyclable methane agriculture is the primary measure to ease water eutrophication and improve intensive development of agriculture ; ＇ soil testing and balanced fertilizing＇ can restrain over-fertilizing and reduce agricultural non-point source pollution while maintain certain unit output level, making organic farming possible;returning farmland to ecosystem and boosting forest economy can help optimize agricultural production and pave news ways for f

关 键 词：DID模型 洱海流域 农业生产方式 生态农业政策 

分 类 号：X37[环境科学与工程—环境工程]